Gaming market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. Read on for details on this impressive prediction! Switch 2: The Projected Leader
80 Million Units by 2028?
Image from NintendoDFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo's Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. The report anticipates Nintendo becoming the console market leader, surpassing both Microsoft and Sony. This projection stems from the Switch 2's expected earlier release (rumored for 2025) and a currently limited competitive landscape. These advantages contribute to a projected sales figure of "15-17 million units in 2025, and over 80 million by 2028." The report even suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges to meet anticipated demand.
Image from Mario official Nintendo siteWhile Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in early stages. DFC Intelligence notes that new consoles from these companies are "expected by 2028." This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (unless a surprise release occurs in 2026) solidifies its projected market dominance. The report suggests only one competitor's post-Switch 2 console will achieve success, highlighting the potential strength of a hypothetical "PS6" due to PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
Nintendo's Switch is already experiencing unprecedented success, having surpassed the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, placing it second in all-time US hardware sales, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement comes despite a reported 3% decrease in Switch's yearly sales.
A Bright Future for the Gaming Industry
DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the gaming industry. David Cole, the firm's founder and CEO, states that after a two-year downturn, the industry is poised for robust growth through the end of the decade, having expanded more than 20 times over the past three decades. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, driven by new product releases and renewed consumer interest. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, slated for a 2025 release, is expected to significantly boost overall sales.
The gaming audience continues to expand, projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of portable gaming, alongside the growth of esports and gaming influencers, is driving hardware sales for both PCs and consoles.
